85% — Pro Football
Leader: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Detroit at 85% · Kalshi 85% · 18 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 23:35:02 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 18 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that the Chicago Bears will receive at least 5 primetime NFL games during the 2026-2027 season. The 96-97% concentration suggests high confidence in this outcome, likely driven by Chicago's large media market and recent roster investments. Primetime game allocations depend on several factors: the Bears' expected competitiveness based on offseason moves, NFL scheduling preferences for marquee matchups, and conference/divisional balance requirements. The main driver of change would be significant trades, injuries to key players, or unexpected roster composition shifts before final schedules are announced. NFL typically releases its full schedule in May; any material changes to team strength between now and that announcement could shift market pricing. Currently, minimal trading volume suggests consensus on this outcome rather than active disagreement.

Key factors:
- Chicago is the third-largest U.S. media market, historically favoring primetime allocations regardless of team performance
- Market pricing at 96-97% indicates near-certainty; resolution depends on NFL's schedule announcement and final game allocation to the Bears
- Competing contracts for Baltimore (20¢) and other teams show Chicago is heavily favored over alternatives but not absolutely guaranteed
- Zero trading volume across contracts suggests limited new information flow; major roster news (trades, injuries) could shift expectations materially
- Primetime game counts typically range 4-7 per team; reaching the 5+ threshold is common for mid-to-large-market franchises but not automatic

Contracts:
- Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Detroit — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Buffalo — 77¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Chicago — 60¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Dallas — 60¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Green Bay — 60¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Baltimore — 29¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Houston — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: San Francisco — 11¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 61%)
- ... and 10 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-21T23:20:52.295Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "85% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflprimetime
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Pro%20Football
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev