5% — Will Lane Johnson win the Protector of the Year Kalshi 5% · 8 contracts · $618 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-29 23:37:25 UTC Why this matters: This 5% probability reflects that Lane Johnson is considered unlikely to win the Protector of the Year award, placing him among several competing offensive linemen for the honor. The market shows meaningful dispersion across comparable players—Penei Sewell leads at 7%, while Garett Bolles and Lane Johnson tie at 6%, suggesting evaluators see them as near-peers. Johnson's probability would rise with exceptional performance metrics (pass protection efficiency, penalty reduction, consensus All-Pro selections) and fall if other candidates demonstrate superior play or accumulate individual awards throughout the season. The award decision typically occurs in January or February following the NFL regular season, when complete statistical records and voter preferences become clear. Key factors: - Lane Johnson's current age (36 in 2026) relative to younger competitors like Sewell (mid-20s), which could influence 'Protector of the Year' voting patterns - Playing time and availability—any significant injuries or reduced snap counts would directly impact award eligibility and statistical accumulation - Comparative performance metrics: sack rate, pressure percentage, and holding penalty count relative to Sewell, Bolles, Humphrey, and Thuney - All-Pro and Pro Bowl selection results, which typically correlate strongly with major annual awards in the NFL - Team success and narrative—players on playoff teams often receive preferential award voting treatment Contracts: - Will Joe Alt win the Protector of the Year?: Joe Alt — 6¢ Kalshi $618 (weight 100%) - Will Armand Membou win the Protector of the Year?: Armand Membou — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Garett Bolles win the Protector of the Year?: Garett Bolles — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Lane Johnson win the Protector of the Year?: Lane Johnson — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Laremy Tunsil win the Protector of the Year?: Laremy Tunsil — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Penei Sewell win the Protector of the Year?: Penei Sewell — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Quinn Meinerz win the Protector of the Year?: Quinn Meinerz — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Trent Williams win the Protector of the Year?: Trent Williams — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-29T23:20:10.104Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflprooty Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Lane%20Johnson%20win%20the%20Protector%20of%20the%20Year Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev