9% — Will Lane Johnson win the Protector of the Year
Kalshi 9% · 9 contracts · $115 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-23 00:59:57 UTC

Why this matters:
Lane Johnson's 7% probability reflects market expectations that he will win the NFL's Protector of the Year award, a recognition for offensive linemen. The odds suggest the Philadelphia Eagles tackle faces significant competition, with Tristan Wirfs (16%) and Quenton Nelson (14%) currently favored. Johnson's probability could rise with exceptional statistical performance, improved team success, or voter recognition of his consistency; it could fall if other candidates demonstrate clearer dominance in metrics like pass-blocking win rate or penalties. The award winner will be determined following the NFL season in early 2027, based on voting by media, coaches, and players who evaluate linemen across pass protection, run blocking, and durability. Current market pricing reflects that Johnson, while a respected veteran, faces steeper competition than the leading candidates.

Key factors:
- Lane Johnson's 7% odds place him fourth among tracked candidates, roughly half the probability of frontrunner Tristan Wirfs
- Pass-blocking efficiency statistics, penalty rates, and games started will be primary factors voters use to evaluate 2026 season performance
- Philadelphia Eagles' offensive line performance and playoff success could elevate or diminish individual lineman recognition
- Award voting typically occurs in January-February 2027 after the regular season concludes, providing the resolution date
- Wirfs and Nelson's higher probabilities suggest market participants view them as having stronger recent performance records or less positional depth competition

Contracts:
- Will Dion Dawkins win the Protector of the Year?: Dion Dawkins — 3¢ Kalshi $90 (weight 78%)
- Will Penei Sewell win the Protector of the Year?: Penei Sewell — 10¢ Kalshi $21 (weight 18%)
- Will Creed Humphrey win the Protector of the Year?: Creed Humphrey — 16¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 3%)
- Will Trent Williams win the Protector of the Year?: Trent Williams — 13¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 1%)
- Will Lane Johnson win the Protector of the Year?: Lane Johnson — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Christian Darrisaw win the Protector of the Year?: Christian Darrisaw — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Quenton Nelson win the Protector of the Year?: Quenton Nelson — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Tristan Wirfs win the Protector of the Year?: Tristan Wirfs — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-23T00:20:49.858Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflprooty
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev