56% — Will Cam Ward record 20+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season Kalshi 56% · 13 contracts · $183 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-27 08:09:13 UTC Why this matters: This market assesses the likelihood that Cam Ward will throw 20 or more touchdown passes during the 2026-07 NFL regular season, currently priced at 60%. The probability reflects expectations about Ward's role, offensive system, and offensive line performance with his NFL team. Key drivers include the quality of his receiving corps, total passing volume relative to rushing attempts, and whether he secures a starting position immediately or shares duties early in the season. The probability will sharpen once the NFL season begins in September 2026 and actual performance data emerges; preseason games and roster finalization in early September will provide early signals about his role and usage patterns. Key factors: - Passing volume: 20+ TDs typically requires 4,000+ passing yards; context on Cam Ward's team's pass-heavy tendency versus ground-game emphasis - Starting status: Whether Ward is the immediate starter or shares snaps significantly affects total passing opportunities across 17 games - Receiving talent: Quality and health of his top three targets; WR1/2 performance and tight end availability directly correlate with TD production - Team offense efficiency: Red zone conversion rates and overall scoring output; a low-scoring offense limits TD opportunities regardless of pass attempts - Injury risk: Both Ward's durability and key offensive skill-position players; one injury to top receivers could alter target distribution and TD potential Contracts: - Will Tyler Shough record 20+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Tyler Shough — 55¢ Kalshi $107 (weight 58%) - Will Joe Burrow record 40+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Joe Burrow — 20¢ Kalshi $75 (weight 41%) - Will Caleb Williams record 20+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Caleb Williams — 4¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 1%) - Will Malik Willis record 25+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Malik Willis — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Daniel Jones record 20+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Daniel Jones — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Joe Burrow record 20+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Joe Burrow — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Jaxson Dart record 20+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Jaxson Dart — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Jordan Love record 20+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Jordan Love — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-27T07:21:46.802Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "56% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflseasonpasstds Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Cam%20Ward%20record%2020%2B%20passing%20touchdowns%20during%20the%202026-27%20Pro%20Football%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev