17% — Will Caleb Williams record 3500+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Kalshi 17% · 6 contracts · $148 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 21:14:55 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract measures whether Caleb Williams will exceed 3,500 passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season. At 9%, the market prices this as unlikely for a second-year quarterback. Williams would need to maintain high volume and efficiency over 17 games, outcomes affected by team passing scheme, offensive line health, and receiver availability. Comparison markets show even established quarterbacks face low probabilities at this threshold—Dak Prescott trades at 20% and Jared Goff at 3%. The resolution depends on final 2026 season statistics, with clarity arriving in early 2027 after the regular season concludes in early January.

Key factors:
- Caleb Williams completed his rookie 2025 season; second-year development trajectory and actual passing volume are unknown variables
- 3,500 yards over 17 games requires ~206 yards per game; this threshold excludes a significant portion of NFL starters annually
- Chicago Bears' offensive scheme, particularly run-pass balance and play-calling tendencies under head coaching staff, directly determines passing attempts available
- Injury status of Williams, offensive line, and receiving corps through 2026 season materially affects completion percentage and yardage output
- Historical precedent shows only 15-20 qualified starters typically exceed 3,500 yards annually across the entire NFL

Contracts:
- Will Drake Maye record 4500+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Drake Maye — 35¢ Kalshi $75 (weight 51%)
- Will Joe Burrow record 4500+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Joe Burrow — 30¢ Kalshi $48 (weight 32%)
- Will Dak Prescott record 3500+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Dak Prescott — 20¢ Kalshi $15 (weight 10%)
- Will Joe Burrow record 3000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Joe Burrow — 6¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 7%)
- Will Caleb Williams record 3500+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Caleb Williams — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Jared Goff record 3500+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Jared Goff — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:10.225Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "17% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflseasonpassyds
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Caleb%20Williams%20record%203500%2B%20passing%20yards%20during%202026-27%20Pro%20Football%20regular%20season
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev