30% — Will Brock Bowers record 8+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season Kalshi 30% · 16 contracts · $476 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-23 01:00:13 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 36% chance that Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers records at least 8 receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 NFL regular season. The probability reflects Bowers' performance trajectory since entering the league in 2025, his target share in the Raiders' offense, and typical touchdown production rates for elite tight ends. The current level suggests market uncertainty about whether Bowers will maintain or exceed his rookie-year production. Key variables include the Raiders' offensive scheme, quarterback consistency, and red-zone usage patterns. The season begins in September 2026, providing the resolution point; performance through preseason will offer early indicators of his role in the offense. Key factors: - Bowers' 2025 rookie season receiving touchdown total and target volume compared to elite tight end benchmarks - Raiders offensive coordinator scheme and whether it emphasizes tight end involvement in the red zone - Stability of Raiders' starting quarterback and consistency of passing game efficiency through the season - Bowers' health status and whether he maintains physical condition needed for 16-game production - Comparative market pricing suggests similar 36-38% probability for other 2025 rookie tight ends (Loveland, Egbuka), indicating baseline expectations for the cohort Contracts: - Will Trey McBride record 10+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Trey McBride — 3¢ Kalshi $122 (weight 26%) - Will Ja'Marr Chase record 10+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Ja'Marr Chase — 42¢ Kalshi $105 (weight 22%) - Will Amon-Ra St. Brown record 12+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Amon-Ra St. Brown — 37¢ Kalshi $80 (weight 17%) - Will Ja'Marr Chase record 14+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Ja'Marr Chase — 8¢ Kalshi $31 (weight 6%) - Will DK Metcalf record 6+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: DK Metcalf — 45¢ Kalshi $29 (weight 6%) - Will Chris Olave record 6+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Chris Olave — 41¢ Kalshi $28 (weight 6%) - Will Amon-Ra St. Brown record 10+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Amon-Ra St. Brown — 12¢ Kalshi $24 (weight 5%) - Will Zay Flowers record 6+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Zay Flowers — 51¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 4%) - ... and 8 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-23T00:20:49.132Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "30% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflseasonrectd Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Brock%20Bowers%20record%208%2B%20receiving%20touchdowns%20during%20the%202026-27%20Pro%20Football%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev