24% — Will Ja'Marr Chase record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season Kalshi 24% · 13 contracts · $209 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-10 02:30:25 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 32% likelihood that Ja'Marr Chase reaches 1,000 receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season. The probability reflects his consistent production history against typical wide receiver performance thresholds. Key drivers include his team's offensive scheme and whether Cincinnati prioritizes him as the primary receiver target. The main uncertainty resolves during the regular season itself, with clarity emerging by mid-season whether his catch volume and yards-per-game pace align with the 1,000-yard threshold. Comparative markets show lower probabilities for several other prominent receivers, suggesting the 32% reflects moderate confidence in Chase's ability among the eligible field. Key factors: - Ja'Marr Chase's average receiving yards per season relative to games played and required yards-per-game pace - Cincinnati Bengals' offensive play-calling and target distribution among available receivers - Chase's injury history and availability for a full 17-game regular season - Relative probability that competing receivers like George Pickens (54¢) and Brock Bowers (37¢) reach the threshold versus Chase - Changes to the Bengals' roster, coaching staff, or quarterback situation between now and September 2026 Contracts: - Will Matthew Golden record 750+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Matthew Golden — 40¢ Kalshi $167 (weight 80%) - Will Makai Lemon record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Makai Lemon — 23¢ Kalshi $41 (weight 20%) - Will Jahmyr Gibbs record 750+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Jahmyr Gibbs — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will A.J. Brown record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: A.J. Brown — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Brock Bowers record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Brock Bowers — 37¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Brian Thomas Jr. record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Brian Thomas Jr. — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Colston Loveland record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Colston Loveland — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Carnell Tate record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Carnell Tate — 45¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-10T02:20:49.395Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "24% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflseasonrecyds Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Ja'Marr%20Chase%20record%201000%2B%20receiving%20yards%20during%202026-27%20Pro%20Football%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev