38% — Will Chase Brown record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season Kalshi 38% · 17 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-21 13:00:03 UTC Why this matters: Chase Brown reaching 10 or more rushing touchdowns during the 2026-07 NFL regular season is currently assigned a 38% probability, reflecting moderate skepticism about this achievement. The assessment balances the fact that 10+ rushing TDs is a meaningful statistical threshold typically reached by featured or high-volume ball carriers, against uncertainty about Brown's role, team usage patterns, and offensive scheme. Key variables include the total rushing attempts he receives, his average TD conversion rate, and whether his team maintains a run-heavy approach through the full season. Comparable running backs face similar hurdles; the related markets show Kenneth Walker III and David Montgomery at 47% and 50% respectively, while Jonathan Taylor sits substantially lower at 12%, illustrating wide variance in expectations across different backs. Key factors: - Chase Brown's snap count and rushing attempt allocation relative to other backs on his roster - Historical TD conversion rate for running backs in his team's offensive system - Red zone usage patterns and goal-line touches allocated to running backs versus pass plays - Season-long injury risk and consistency of opportunity across 17 games - Strength of opponent defenses faced, particularly late-season playoff-contention teams Contracts: - Will Kenneth Walker III record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Kenneth Walker III — 47¢ Kalshi $265 (weight 25%) - Will Jahmyr Gibbs record 14+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Jahmyr Gibbs — 37¢ Kalshi $262 (weight 24%) - Will David Montgomery record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: David Montgomery — 50¢ Kalshi $153 (weight 14%) - Will Jonathan Taylor record 16+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Jonathan Taylor — 12¢ Kalshi $132 (weight 12%) - Will Javonte Williams record 8+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Javonte Williams — 38¢ Kalshi $82 (weight 8%) - Will Jaxson Dart record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Jaxson Dart — 9¢ Kalshi $51 (weight 5%) - Will James Cook III record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: James Cook III — 3¢ Kalshi $44 (weight 4%) - Will Omarion Hampton record 8+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Omarion Hampton — 53¢ Kalshi $38 (weight 4%) - ... and 9 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-21T11:20:53.071Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "38% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflseasonrshtd Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Chase%20Brown%20record%2010%2B%20rushing%20touchdowns%20during%20the%202026-27%20Pro%20Football%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev