20% — Arizona wins by over 9.5 points Kalshi 20% · 20 contracts · $20K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 07:34:29 UTC Why this matters: This market reflects a 9% probability that Arizona will win a football game by more than 9.5 points. The low probability suggests the market expects either a close contest or a Carolina victory. The pricing is driven by Carolina's apparent strength relative to Arizona, as evidenced by the higher prices on Carolina covering smaller spreads (47¢ for a 1.5-point margin versus 9¢ for Arizona's 9.5-point threshold). The market shows flat pricing across Arizona's 9.5, 10.5, and 13.5-point victory thresholds, indicating little confidence in large Arizona wins at any margin. Resolution depends on the actual game outcome, which will settle the related margin contracts once the final score is recorded. Currently, zero 24-hour volume on the Arizona contracts suggests limited recent trading activity to establish these prices. Key factors: - Carolina's tighter point-spread contracts (1.5-point and 2.5-point wins) are priced significantly higher than Arizona's, indicating market conviction Carolina is the favored team - Arizona's prices remain flat at 9¢ across all three larger margin thresholds (9.5, 10.5, 13.5 points), suggesting minimal differentiation in perceived probability of blowout wins - Zero 24-hour trading volume on Arizona contracts indicates these prices may be stale or reflective of minimal market interest rather than actively formed consensus - Carolina's higher prices on smaller margins imply the market views Carolina either winning outright or winning decisively, not a close game favoring Arizona - The 9% probability for a 9.5-point Arizona win is consistent with treating Arizona as a substantial underdog in this matchup Contracts: - Buffalo wins by over 2.5 points?: Buffalo wins by over 2.5 points — 39¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 21%) - Buffalo wins by over 1.5 points?: Buffalo wins by over 1.5 points — 41¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 18%) - New Orleans wins by over 16.5 points?: New Orleans wins by over 16.5 points — 6¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 12%) - Carolina wins by over 1.5 points?: Carolina wins by over 1.5 points — 49¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 8%) - Carolina wins by over 16.5 points?: Carolina wins by over 16.5 points — 10¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 6%) - Minnesota wins by over 16.5 points?: Minnesota wins by over 16.5 points — 14¢ Kalshi $940 (weight 5%) - Chicago wins by over 16.5 points?: Chicago wins by over 16.5 points — 11¢ Kalshi $873 (weight 4%) - Chicago wins by over 13.5 points?: Chicago wins by over 13.5 points — 14¢ Kalshi $796 (weight 4%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T07:20:50.294Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "20% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflspread Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Arizona%20wins%20by%20over%209.5%20points Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev