32% — Will Green Bay be eliminated in the Wildcard Round in the 2026-27 Pro Football season Kalshi 32% · 9 contracts · $40 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 06:03:16 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 20% chance that the Green Bay Packers will be eliminated in the NFL Wildcard Round during the 2026-27 season, meaning they either miss the playoffs entirely or win their division/conference enough to advance past Wildcard play. The probability reflects expectations about Green Bay's roster strength and NFC North competitiveness. Key factors influencing this estimate include the Packers' current roster composition, injuries to key players, divisional rivals' strength (particularly Chicago and Minnesota), and overall NFC playoff seeding dynamics. Uncertainty will resolve through the regular season as team performance becomes measurable, with the NFL playoff bracket formally determined by late December 2026 when the season concludes. The market essentially prices in a moderately strong playoff position for Green Bay rather than early elimination. Key factors: - Green Bay's win-loss record and playoff seeding through the 2026 regular season will directly determine wildcard round participation, with stronger records reducing elimination probability - The competitiveness of the NFC North division will drive whether Green Bay secures a division title versus a wildcard spot, with Chicago and Minnesota performance being critical variables - Injuries to key offensive or defensive players during the season could significantly alter playoff trajectory and elimination risk - Comparative strength of other NFC teams will affect the overall playoff bracket and Green Bay's path, particularly wild card berth competition - Head-to-head performance against divisional opponents determines playoff seeding and directly impacts whether Green Bay plays in the Wildcard Round Contracts: - Will New Orleans be eliminated in the Wildcard Round in the 2026-27 Pro Football season?: Wildcard Round — 11¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 48%) - Will Green Bay be eliminated in the Regular Season in the 2026-27 Pro Football season?: Regular Season — 42¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 19%) - Will Chicago be eliminated in the Wildcard Round in the 2026-27 Pro Football season?: Wildcard Round — 11¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 18%) - Will New England be eliminated in the Wildcard Round in the 2026-27 Pro Football season?: Wildcard Round — 15¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 15%) - Will Washington be eliminated in the Regular Season in the 2026-27 Pro Football season?: Regular Season — 64¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Washington be eliminated in the Wildcard Round in the 2026-27 Pro Football season?: Wildcard Round — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Tennessee be eliminated in the Regular Season in the 2026-27 Pro Football season?: Regular Season — 76¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Tampa Bay be eliminated in the Regular Season in the 2026-27 Pro Football season?: Regular Season — 52¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T05:20:48.908Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "32% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflstageofelim Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Green%20Bay%20be%20eliminated%20in%20the%20Wildcard%20Round%20in%20the%202026-27%20Pro%20Football%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev