11% — Will the single season receiving yards record be broken
Leader: Over 5477 passing yards at 11% · Kalshi 11% · 5 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-25 08:48:47 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market assesses the probability that an NFL player will exceed 1,964 receiving yards in a single season, currently priced at 10% based on limited trading activity. The record has stood since 1961 and requires sustained elite performance across a full 17-game season. The probability reflects that while several receivers regularly approach or exceed 1,600 yards, breaking 1,964 demands both exceptional talent and favorable circumstances including health, offensive scheme alignment, and target volume. The 2026 NFL season (ongoing through January 2027) will determine whether any current receiver achieves this threshold. The market shows lower confidence in receiving yards being broken compared to sack records, suggesting historical difficulty in reaching this specific benchmark despite modern offensive evolution.

Key factors:
- Current NFL receiving yards leaders in 2026 season and their proximity to 1,964 yards as of late August
- Comparison of recent single-season receiving yard totals (2020-2025) to identify trend toward or away from the record
- Gap between the receiving yards record (1,964) and the next closest modern-era seasonal totals
- Kalshi contract pricing at 5¢ implies approximately 5% implied probability, suggesting low but non-negligible odds
- Historical frequency of season-long 1,600+ yard receiving seasons versus the rarity of 1,900+ yard seasons

Contracts:
- Will the single season passing yards record be broken?: Over 5477 passing yards — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will the single season receptions record be broken?: Over 149 receptions — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will the single season rushing yards record be broken?: Over 2105 rushing yards — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will the single season sack record be broken?: Over 23 sacks — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will the single season receiving yards record be broken?: Over 1964 receiving yards — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-25T08:20:50.790Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflsznrecord
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20single%20season%20receiving%20yards%20record%20be%20broken
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev