30% — Will Josh Allen be #1 on the Pro Football Top 100 List Kalshi 30% · 8 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-09 23:24:58 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the estimated chance that Josh Allen will be voted the #1 player on the NFL Network's Pro Football Top 100 list in 2026. Allen's 14% probability places him fourth among active candidates, behind Myles Garrett (32%), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (21%), and Ja'Marr Chase (9%). The Top 100 list is determined by votes from current NFL players, making recent on-field performance, playoff success, and overall impact the primary drivers. Allen's ranking will depend on how his 2025 season unfolds—particularly whether the Bills advance deep into the playoffs and whether his statistical output matches or exceeds competitors. The list is typically released in summer, which means the 2025 regular season and playoffs will be the decisive period for determining candidacy. Historical voting patterns show that recent championship runs and individual accolades heavily influence final rankings. Key factors: - Josh Allen's playoff performance and team success during the 2025 NFL season, as deep playoff runs historically correlate with top rankings - Comparative voting strength of competing candidates, particularly Garrett and Smith-Njigba, whose current market prices suggest higher player preference - Allen's regular season statistics (passing yards, touchdowns, turnovers) relative to peer group in 2025 - Recency bias in player voting, which typically favors standout performances from the immediately preceding season - The timing and methodology of player voting for the Top 100 list, which occurs after the season concludes Contracts: - Will Myles Garrett be #1 on the Pro Football Top 100 List?: Myles Garrett — 64¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 71%) - Will Matthew Stafford be #1 on the Pro Football Top 100 List?: Matthew Stafford — 14¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 28%) - Will Patrick Mahomes be #1 on the Pro Football Top 100 List?: Patrick Mahomes — 8¢ Kalshi $26 (weight 1%) - Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba be #3 on the Pro Football Top 100 List?: Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 23¢ Kalshi $26 (weight 1%) - Will Matthew Stafford be #2 on the Pro Football Top 100 List?: Matthew Stafford — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba be #1 on the Pro Football Top 100 List?: Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Will Anderson Jr. be #1 on the Pro Football Top 100 List?: Will Anderson Jr. — 83¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Dak Prescott be #2 on the Pro Football Top 100 List?: Dak Prescott — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-09T23:20:49.553Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "30% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflt100 Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Josh%20Allen%20be%20%231%20on%20the%20Pro%20Football%20Top%20100%20List Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev