50% — Will Myles Garrett be Top 25 on the Pro Football Top 100 List
Kalshi 50% · 16 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 04:26:31 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Myles Garrett will rank between 1st and 25th on the NFL's annual Pro Football Top 100 list, voted by players. Garrett's inclusion in the top 25 hinges primarily on his 2025 season performance and how voters perceive his defensive impact relative to other elite pass rushers and defenders. Related markets suggest stronger confidence in a top-10 placement (50¢) compared to top-25 (36¢), indicating some uncertainty about whether he performs at an elite enough level to secure recognition among the league's best. The list typically releases in summer, making recent performance data and playoff success key inputs for voter consideration.

Key factors:
- Garrett's 2025 regular season sack total and pressure statistics compared to other elite defensive ends
- His health status heading into the 2025 season following any prior injuries
- Historical voting patterns showing typical threshold for top-25 inclusion at his defensive position
- Recent playoff performance and standout moments that might influence player voters
- Competitive field of edge rushers and defensive linemen potentially competing for similar ranking slots

Contracts:
- Will Lamar Jackson be Top 5 on the Pro Football Top 100 List?: Lamar Jackson — 55¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Will Drake Maye be Top 5 on the Pro Football Top 100 List?: Drake Maye — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Will Penei Sewell be Top 5 on the Pro Football Top 100 List?: Penei Sewell — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Will Myles Garrett be Top 5 on the Pro Football Top 100 List?: Myles Garrett — 80¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Will Matthew Stafford be Top 5 on the Pro Football Top 100 List?: Matthew Stafford — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Will Justin Jefferson be Top 5 on the Pro Football Top 100 List?: Justin Jefferson — 60¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba be Top 5 on the Pro Football Top 100 List?: Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 53¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Will Jahmyr Gibbs be Top 5 on the Pro Football Top 100 List?: Jahmyr Gibbs — 50¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- ... and 8 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-07-13T04:20:49.396Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "50% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflt100top
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Myles%20Garrett%20be%20Top%2025%20on%20the%20Pro%20Football%20Top%20100%20List
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev