12% — Will Miami allow the fewest points scored Kalshi 12% · 5 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-21 23:15:19 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects a 16% chance that Miami's defense will allow fewer points than all other NFL teams during the 2026 season. The current price suggests Miami is among the middle-tier favorites for this outcome, trailing Houston (25%) but competitive with Los Angeles and other teams. Miami's defensive performance depends primarily on their ability to maintain consistency across the full season without significant injuries to key defensive personnel. The main factors driving this probability are the team's current roster composition, coaching staff stability, and injury history relative to other AFC East competitors. The outcome will be fully determined once the regular season concludes and final defensive statistics are compiled, making this a season-long bet dependent on sustained performance rather than any single near-term catalyst. Key factors: - Miami's defensive personnel health and availability across all 17 regular season games compared to competitors - Historical defensive efficiency metrics for Miami versus teams like Houston, Los Angeles, and other division rivals - Coaching changes or defensive coordinator adjustments that could impact scheme effectiveness - Strength of schedule and opponent offensive quality, which affects total points allowed regardless of defensive quality - Mid-season roster moves, trades, or free-agent signings that could strengthen or weaken Miami's defense Contracts: - Will Baltimore allow the fewest points scored?: Baltimore — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will Denver allow the fewest points scored?: Denver — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will Houston allow the fewest points scored?: Houston — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will Kansas City allow the fewest points scored?: Kansas City — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will Los Angeles R allow the fewest points scored?: Los Angeles R — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-21T21:20:56.710Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflteamdpts Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Miami%20allow%20the%20fewest%20points%20scored Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev