90% — Will there be over 18.5 points scored Leader: Over 18.5 points scored at 90% · Kalshi 90% · 20 contracts · $35K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-09 23:24:59 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates a 51% probability that a specific NFL game (Carolina vs. Arizona on August 6, 2026) will exceed 18.5 combined points. The contract pricing reveals sharp disagreement: while the over-18.5 line trades at just 13 cents, the over-35.5 line trades at 48 cents, suggesting traders view a low-scoring game as most likely. Score totals depend heavily on offensive execution, weather conditions, and defensive performance. The game resolves on August 6, 2026, when the final score is recorded. Current market liquidity is minimal (zero 24-hour volume on the 18.5 threshold), indicating limited recent trading activity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads. The substantial gap between the 15.5-point threshold (13 cents) and 35.5-point threshold (48 cents) suggests the market clusters probability mass in the 16-35 point range, with the core uncertainty around whether the total lands above or below 18.5. Key factors: - The over-35.5 contract at 48 cents implies roughly 52% probability for totals exceeding 35.5 points, indicating most probability mass falls between 16-35 points rather than at extremes - Zero 24-hour volume on the 18.5 line suggests sparse liquidity and potentially stale pricing that may not reflect recent information updates - The implied probability of 51% for over-18.5 sits directly above the threshold, meaning traders assign near-equal odds to outcomes just above versus just below this boundary - Week 4 preseason games typically feature younger roster players, reserve defenses, and limited offensive coordination compared to regular season, historically producing lower point totals - Game resolution occurs August 6, 2026; no interim data releases or events will clarify expectations before market settlement Contracts: - Will there be over 18.5 points scored?: Over 18.5 points scored — 90¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 7%) - Will there be over 17.5 points scored?: Over 17.5 points scored — 90¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 4%) - Will there be over 16.5 points scored?: Over 16.5 points scored — 89¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 4%) - Will there be over 19.5 points scored?: Over 19.5 points scored — 89¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 3%) - Will there be over 22.5 points scored?: Over 22.5 points scored — 86¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 7%) - Will there be over 21.5 points scored?: Over 21.5 points scored — 83¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%) - Will there be over 24.5 points scored?: Over 24.5 points scored — 83¢ Kalshi $762 (weight 2%) - Will there be over 25.5 points scored?: Over 25.5 points scored — 80¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 17%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-09T23:20:51.745Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "90% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nfltotal Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20there%20be%20over%2018.5%20points%20scored Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev