16% — Will Brian Thomas Jr. be traded before Dec 1, 2026
Kalshi 16% · 18 contracts · $476 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-26 09:01:57 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract reflects the probability that Brian Thomas Jr., a young wide receiver, would be traded away from his current team before December 1, 2026. At 16%, the market is pricing in a low likelihood of a trade occurring within this timeframe. The probability is driven primarily by Thomas's status as a recent draft pick with his original team still early in evaluating his fit, and secondarily by the relative rarity of trading young offensive skill-position players mid-season. The main catalyst for resolving uncertainty will be the NFL trade deadline on October 27, 2026, which is the practical cutoff for mid-season trades. Contract situations and team performance through September and October would influence whether his team considers trading him versus a veteran player.

Key factors:
- Brian Thomas Jr.'s draft status and salary scale relative to established veterans who are more commonly traded
- His team's offensive scheme fit and playing time allocation through the 2026 regular season
- Whether his current team remains in playoff contention or faces unexpected personnel losses by mid-season
- Market comparability: Breece Hall (75¢) is significantly higher, suggesting context about position, age, or team factors differs substantially
- The NFL trade deadline on October 27, 2026 serves as the hard cutoff for mid-season transactions

Contracts:
- Will Garrett Wilson be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Garrett Wilson — 18¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 42%)
- Will Brian Thomas Jr. be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Brian Thomas Jr. — 16¢ Kalshi $99 (weight 21%)
- Will Drake London be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Drake London — 17¢ Kalshi $83 (weight 18%)
- Will Jessie Bates III be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Jessie Bates III — 7¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 5%)
- Will Maxx Crosby be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Maxx Crosby — 17¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 4%)
- Will Marvin Harrison Jr. be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Marvin Harrison Jr. — 14¢ Kalshi $17 (weight 4%)
- Will Brandon Aiyuk be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Brandon Aiyuk — 6¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 3%)
- Will Shedeur Sanders be traded before Dec 1, 2026?: Shedeur Sanders — 96¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 2%)
- ... and 10 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-26T08:20:51.593Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nfltrade
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Brian%20Thomas%20Jr.%20be%20traded%20before%20Dec%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev