72% — Will Alec Pierce play in a Pro Football game in Week 1
Kalshi 72% · 19 contracts · $9K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-27 08:09:16 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract reflects an estimated 74% chance that Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce will take the field during the team's first regular-season game in 2026. The probability sits between comparable high-confidence players like Mahomes (91%) and lower-confidence players like Vea (73%), suggesting moderate uncertainty about his availability. Factors driving this level include his current health status, depth chart positioning, and any injuries sustained during preseason. The contract will resolve once Week 1 games are played in early September 2026. The main catalyst determining the outcome will be the Colts' official game-day roster and inactives list released before kickoff, along with any injuries Pierce or competing receivers sustain during August preseason practices.

Key factors:
- Pierce's injury history and current physical condition heading into the 2026 preseason
- His position in the Colts' receiver depth chart relative to other available offensive weapons
- Whether the Colts face a favorable or challenging Week 1 opponent affecting roster management decisions
- Any significant injuries sustained during preseason games or practices in August 2026
- The team's offensive gameplan and expected usage patterns for wide receivers in their opening matchup

Contracts:
- Will Josh Jacobs play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?: Josh Jacobs — 56¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 36%)
- Will Luther Burden III play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?: Luther Burden III — 84¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 12%)
- Will Sam LaPorta play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?: Sam LaPorta — 74¢ Kalshi $858 (weight 9%)
- Will George Kittle play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?: George Kittle — 25¢ Kalshi $798 (weight 9%)
- Will Christian McCaffrey play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?: Christian McCaffrey — 91¢ Kalshi $665 (weight 7%)
- Will Alec Pierce play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?: Alec Pierce — 7¢ Kalshi $642 (weight 7%)
- Will Jeremiyah Love play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?: Jeremiyah Love — 65¢ Kalshi $495 (weight 5%)
- Will Ja'Marr Chase play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?: Ja'Marr Chase — 87¢ Kalshi $426 (weight 5%)
- ... and 11 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-27T07:21:48.420Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "72% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflweekcompete
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Alec%20Pierce%20play%20in%20a%20Pro%20Football%20game%20in%20Week%201
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev