47% — Will the Carolina pro football team win at least 7 games this season
Kalshi 47% · 20 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 16:22:54 UTC

Why this matters:
This market indicates a 40% probability that Carolina wins at least 7 games in the 2026 pro football season. The current level reflects mixed assessments of the team's roster strength and competitive position. Win totals hinge on offensive consistency, injury management, and schedule difficulty—factors that become clearer as the season progresses. The probability will face its most significant test starting with Carolina's opening game in September 2026, when actual performance data begins accumulating and early-season results either validate or contradict preseason expectations.

Key factors:
- Carolina's preseason roster composition compared to divisional competitors, particularly NFC South teams currently considered stronger
- Historical performance trends of Carolina's coaching staff and quarterback depth chart in win-probability forecasting models
- Schedule strength relative to overall league difficulty, including number of games against playoff-caliber opponents
- Injury history patterns for key Carolina offensive and defensive personnel entering the 2026 season
- Market pricing on related contracts shows Carolina division championship at 20¢, suggesting underlying skepticism about team competitiveness

Contracts:
- Will the Baltimore pro football team win at least 13 games this season?: 13+ wins — 24¢ Kalshi $901 (weight 19%)
- Will the Cincinnati pro football team win at least 11 games this season?: 11+ wins — 43¢ Kalshi $564 (weight 12%)
- Will the Baltimore pro football team win at least 5 games this season?: 5+ wins — 89¢ Kalshi $512 (weight 11%)
- Will the Green Bay pro football team win at least 9 games this season?: 9+ wins — 69¢ Kalshi $505 (weight 11%)
- Will the Buffalo pro football team win at least 11 games this season?: 11+ wins — 52¢ Kalshi $500 (weight 11%)
- Will the Miami pro football team win at least 5 games this season?: 5+ wins — 41¢ Kalshi $365 (weight 8%)
- Will the New York G pro football team win at least 9 games this season?: 9+ wins — 40¢ Kalshi $225 (weight 5%)
- Will the Indianapolis pro football team win at least 8 games this season?: 8+ wins — 52¢ Kalshi $218 (weight 5%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T16:20:49.387Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "47% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflwins
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Carolina%20pro%20football%20team%20win%20at%20least%207%20games%20this%20season
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev