44% — Will the Carolina pro football team win at least 7 games this season
Kalshi 44% · 20 contracts · $17K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 09:57:16 UTC

Why this matters:
This market contract indicates that traders estimate a 37% chance the Carolina pro football team will win at least 7 games during the 2026 NFL season. This probability reflects expectations that the team will finish below a .500 record, suggesting markets view the roster or coaching situation as below-average competitive strength. The main drivers of this modest forecast are likely team construction, quarterback performance, and divisional strength, particularly given Carolina's placement in a competitive NFC South. The probability could shift significantly once the season begins and actual win-loss results provide clarity on team performance, with the final determination coming when the 2026 regular season concludes in January 2027.

Key factors:
- Carolina's current roster depth, offensive line quality, and defensive capability compared to division rivals Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans
- Performance of the quarterback position, including consistency, injury status, and decision-making under pressure
- Coaching staff execution and play-calling effectiveness relative to other NFC South teams in a competitive division
- Strength of schedule, particularly win probability against non-division opponents in weeks 1-17
- Comparative market pricing on other NFC South teams, where Baltimore is trading at 39% for 12+ wins, suggesting relative pessimism about Carolina specifically

Contracts:
- Will the New York G pro football team win at least 9 games this season?: 9+ wins — 37¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 18%)
- Will the Chicago pro football team win at least 10 games this season?: 10+ wins — 48¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 12%)
- Will the Miami pro football team win at least 5 games this season?: 5+ wins — 36¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 8%)
- Will the San Francisco pro football team win at least 11 games this season?: 11+ wins — 40¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 7%)
- Will the New York G pro football team win at least 8 games this season?: 8+ wins — 51¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 7%)
- Will the San Francisco pro football team win at least 10 games this season?: 10+ wins — 55¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 7%)
- Will the Buffalo pro football team win at least 6 games this season?: 6+ wins — 95¢ Kalshi $885 (weight 5%)
- Will the Los Angeles R pro football team win at least 15 games this season?: 15+ wins — 17¢ Kalshi $777 (weight 5%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T07:20:50.256Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "44% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflwins
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Carolina%20pro%20football%20team%20win%20at%20least%207%20games%20this%20season
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev