47% — Will Green Bay win at least 2 games in the first 4 weeks Kalshi 47% · 19 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-27 09:30:22 UTC Why this matters: This contract asks whether the Green Bay Packers will win at least 2 games during weeks 1-4 of the 2026 NFL season. At 55%, the market reflects slightly better-than-even odds. The probability depends primarily on the team's roster composition, starting quarterback health, and the strength of their opening schedule opponents. Key unknowns include whether the Packers have made significant offseason improvements, how their defense performs early in the season, and whether key players avoid injury during this stretch. The contract will be decided by the official results of Green Bay's first four games, which will conclude in late September 2026. Key factors: - Packers' starting quarterback status and performance level entering the season; injury or decline would substantially lower win probability - Quality of opening schedule opponents in weeks 1-4; strength of schedule directly impacts win probability - Offensive line health and effectiveness; line stability is critical for any offense functioning in early season - Defensive performance metrics in first four weeks, particularly against pass-heavy offenses in the early schedule - Prior season trajectory; 2025 regular season results would indicate offensive and defensive capability heading into 2026 Contracts: - Will New Orleans win at least 2 games in the first 4 weeks?: New Orleans: 2+ wins in first 4 weeks — 50¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 74%) - Will Detroit win at least 3 games in the first 4 weeks?: Detroit: 3+ wins in first 4 weeks — 10¢ Kalshi $231 (weight 17%) - Will Chicago win at least 3 games in the first 4 weeks?: Chicago: 3+ wins in first 4 weeks — 7¢ Kalshi $39 (weight 3%) - Will Las Vegas win at least 3 games in the first 8 weeks?: Las Vegas: 3+ wins in first 8 weeks — 50¢ Kalshi $38 (weight 3%) - Will Las Vegas win at least 2 games in the first 8 weeks?: Las Vegas: 2+ wins in first 8 weeks — 74¢ Kalshi $34 (weight 2%) - Will Houston win at least 3 games in the first 4 weeks?: Houston: 3+ wins in first 4 weeks — 25¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 1%) - Will Buffalo win at least 3 games in the first 4 weeks?: Buffalo: 3+ wins in first 4 weeks — 47¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%) - Will Green Bay win at least 3 games in the first 4 weeks?: Green Bay: 3+ wins in first 4 weeks — 52¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%) - ... and 11 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-27T09:20:51.979Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "47% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nflwinsweek Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Green%20Bay%20win%20at%20least%202%20games%20in%20the%20first%204%20weeks Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev