60% — Will the price of natural gas get above $6.00 per million BTU before January 1, 2027 Leader: $4.01 or above at 60% · Kalshi 60% · 7 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 08:18:44 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: This reflects traders' assessment that natural gas will exceed $6.00 per million BTU at some point between now and December 31, 2026. The 93% probability is driven by current pricing around $2.75–$3.10/MMBtu and the seven-month window available for a near-doubling of prices. Natural gas markets respond sharply to supply disruptions, demand spikes from extreme weather, and inventory levels reported weekly by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The critical factor determining whether this threshold is reached will be whether a significant supply shock (production outage, pipeline disruption, or extreme cold snap) occurs during the Northern Hemisphere winter season ahead. Near-term prices remain range-bound, but the large probability gap suggests markets are pricing in a meaningful tail risk of such disruption over the next 31 weeks. Key factors: - Current natural gas spot prices trade $2.75–$3.10/MMBtu, requiring a 100%+ price increase to reach $6.00 within 240 days - Weekly EIA inventory reports and monthly production data will establish supply cushions; a multi-week draw or production failure could trigger rapid repricing upward - Historical natural gas volatility exceeds 30% annually; price swings of 50%+ in 2–4 week windows have occurred during supply disruptions or winter demand peaks - Winter 2026–27 demand intensity depends on heating-season temperature anomalies and LNG export capacity utilization; both remain uncertain until Q4 2026 - The three leading Kalshi contracts price much lower probabilities ($0.05–$0.16) for near-term thresholds ($3.10–$3.40 by early May), suggesting most upside probability mass is weighted to Q4 2026 events Contracts: - Will the price of natural gas get above $4.00 per million BTU before January 1, 2027?: $4.01 or above — 60¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will the price of natural gas get above $4.50 per million BTU before January 1, 2027?: $4.51 or above — 55¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will the price of natural gas get above $5.00 per million BTU before January 1, 2027?: $5.01 or above — 50¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will the price of natural gas get above $5.50 per million BTU before January 1, 2027?: $5.51 or above — 37¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will the price of natural gas get above $6.00 per million BTU before January 1, 2027?: $6.01 or above — 29¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will the price of natural gas get above $6.50 per million BTU before January 1, 2027?: $6.51 or above — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will the price of natural gas get above $7.00 per million BTU before January 1, 2027?: $7.01 or above — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:51.741Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "60% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ngasmax Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20price%20of%20natural%20gas%20get%20above%20%246.00%20per%20million%20BTU%20before%20January%201%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev