22% — Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.5% in Q1 2026
Leader: Above 2.0% at 22% · Kalshi 22% · 5 contracts · $300 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:36:00 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This prediction reflects market expectations that U.S. nominal GDP growth will exceed 1.5% annualized in the second quarter of 2026. The 92% probability indicates confidence in at least modest growth, though the spread across contracts reveals uncertainty about the magnitude. Markets are pricing in resilience despite potential headwinds like higher interest rates or labor market softening, but also acknowledging meaningful downside risks below 1.5%—reflected in the 49% probability for above-1.5% growth specifically. The official GDP estimate for Q2 2026, released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in late July 2026, will provide the definitive resolution. Current positioning suggests traders expect growth to land between 1.0% and 1.5%, favoring the lower-bound outcome over stronger performance.

Key factors:
- Nominal GDP growth depends on both real GDP growth and inflation rates; a combination of modest real growth (1-2%) and stable inflation (2-3%) would support outcomes near 1.5%
- Labor market strength or weakness directly affects consumer spending and wage growth, with employment data and wage trends in Q2 acting as leading indicators
- Federal Reserve policy and inflation trajectory through mid-2026 shape both growth expectations and nominal adjustments; any significant rate changes would alter growth forecasts
- The contract pricing spread (92% above 0.5%, 49% above 1.5%) suggests traders view sub-1.5% but above-1.0% growth as the modal outcome
- Historical quarterly nominal GDP has averaged 2.5-3.0% recently; achieving only 1.5% would represent material deceleration requiring specific economic headwinds

Contracts:
- Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 2.0% in Q2 2026?: Above 2.0% — 22¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 33%)
- Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.5% in Q2 2026?: Above 1.5% — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 0.5% in Q2 2026?: Above 0.5% — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 2.5% in Q2 2026?: Above 2.5% — 5¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 67%)
- Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.0% in Q2 2026?: Above 1.0% — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:49.071Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "22% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ngdpq
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20nominal%20U.S.%20GDP%20growth%20be%20above%201.5%25%20in%20Q1%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev