18% — What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026
Leader: Chicago at 18% · Kalshi 18% · 5 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-25 12:23:23 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 19% probability that President Trump will deploy the National Guard to at least one major U.S. city during 2026. The leading scenario is Chicago at 19%, followed by Houston at 16% and Detroit at 14%. This probability reflects expectations about civil unrest, public safety concerns, or federal intervention that could prompt such a deployment. The level is driven primarily by near-term economic conditions, crime trends in major cities, and the political context surrounding executive use of federal forces. Key catalysts include major crime spikes or civil disturbances in tracked cities, which would directly influence whether conditions meet thresholds for National Guard deployment. As 2026 unfolds, actual public safety developments and policy decisions will determine if this scenario materializes. Currently, low trading volume ($0 in recent activity) suggests limited market conviction across all outcomes.

Key factors:
- Crime rates and public safety data in Chicago, Houston, Detroit, Portland, and San Francisco—significant increases could raise deployment probability
- Major civil disturbances, riots, or large-scale unrest in any tracked city would directly trigger reassessment of deployment likelihood
- Federal policy statements and executive guidance on National Guard deployment criteria and trigger thresholds throughout 2026
- Election-related tensions or social unrest in late 2026 as midterm cycle dynamics intensify
- Comparative pricing across the five cities reveals Chicago and Houston as market leaders despite near-zero volume, indicating structural expectations rather than consensus certainty

Contracts:
- What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?: Chicago — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 100%)
- What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?: Houston — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?: Detroit — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?: San Francisco — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?: Portland — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-25T11:20:50.031Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nguardcity
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20cities%20will%20Trump%20send%20the%20National%20Guard%20to%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev