50% — Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-1
Kalshi 50% · 2 contracts · $483 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:37 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Stefany Shaheen will secure the Democratic nomination for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District. At 30%, the market is pricing in meaningful competition for the seat, suggesting no clear frontrunner has emerged. The incumbent's track record, previous election performance, and primary opposition from other Democrats are central factors affecting this estimate. The nomination will likely be determined by candidate filing deadlines and the primary election itself, typically held in autumn of even-numbered years. Market movement would depend on whether Shaheen formally announces candidacy, faces significant primary challengers, or experiences shifts in district-level Democratic sentiment.

Key factors:
- Whether Stefany Shaheen announces official candidacy and commits campaign resources to the race
- Primary field composition: the number and profile of competing Democratic candidates seeking the nomination
- Historical primary performance data: Shaheen's vote share in previous Democratic primaries for this or related seats
- Filing deadline date for the 2026 general election cycle and any candidate announcements before that cutoff
- Local polling or endorsement patterns from New Hampshire Democratic Party officials that indicate relative candidate strength

Contracts:
- Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-1?: Maura Sullivan — 23¢ Kalshi $483 (weight 100%)
- Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-1?: Stefany Shaheen — 77¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:51.038Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "50% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nh1d
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Stefany%20Shaheen%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20NH-1
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev