36% — NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner
Leader: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner: Mitch Marner at 36% · Polymarket 36% · 9 contracts · $56 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 23:40:50 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes.

Contracts:
- NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner: Mitch Marner — 36¢ Polymarket $21 (weight 38%)
- NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner: Rasmus Dahlin — 33¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 9%)
- NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner: Clayton Keller — 33¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner: Nick Suzuki — 11¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 9%)
- NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner: Linus Ullmark — 10¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 9%)
- NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner: Cole Caufield — 8¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 9%)
- NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner: Jack Eichel — 7¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 9%)
- NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner: Seth Jarvis — 4¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 9%)
- ... and 1 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-05-28T23:20:08.769Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "36% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nhl-conn-smythe-trophy-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=NHL%3A%202026%20Conn%20Smythe%20Trophy%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev