96% — NHL Frank J. Selke Trophy Winner
Polymarket 96% · 1 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 05:23:11 UTC

Why this matters:
This 90% probability indicates markets view Nick Suzuki as the heavily favored winner of the NHL's Frank J. Selke Trophy, awarded annually to the league's best defensive forward. The current market level reflects Suzuki's consistent two-way performance and reputation for defensive excellence throughout the 2025-26 season. The probability would move if competing forwards—particularly those with stronger playoff performances or late-season statistical surges—demonstrate measurable improvements in defensive metrics like plus-minus, takeaways, or penalty differential. The trophy winner will be determined in June 2026 when the NHL announces the award, with voting typically completed shortly after the regular season ends. Key factors analysts monitor include final-season defensive statistics across contenders, playoff performance visibility, voting patterns from previous years, and any injuries or performance changes in the final weeks of competition.

Key factors:
- Nick Suzuki's defensive rating and plus-minus relative to other top forward candidates in the final standings
- Playoff performance and visibility for Suzuki versus other Selke contenders through June
- Historical voting patterns showing whether voters favor statistical dominance or narrative/positional prestige
- Injury status or late-season performance changes for Suzuki or other shortlist-caliber forwards
- The margin between Suzuki (90%) and runner-up (7%) suggests concentrated confidence rather than genuine competitive uncertainty

Contracts:
- NHL Frank J. Selke Trophy Winner: Nick Suzuki — 96¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-06T19:20:12.995Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nhl-frank-j-selke-trophy-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=NHL%20Frank%20J.%20Selke%20Trophy%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev