4% — NHL Vezina Trophy Winner
Leader: Jeremy Swayman at 4% · Polymarket 4% · 2 contracts · $562 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:42:44 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 89% probability reflects market confidence that Ilya Sorokin will win the 2026 NHL Vezina Trophy, awarded to the league's best goaltender. This high likelihood is driven by Sorokin's recent performance metrics and likely reflects strong regular-season statistics through early May 2026. The probability could shift if a competing goaltender demonstrates superior save percentage, goals-against average, or wins down the stretch, or if Sorokin experiences injury or decline. The Vezina winner is typically announced in June following the regular season conclusion, making upcoming playoff performance and final-season statistics the primary catalyst for resolving this market. Trading volume remains relatively modest across contracts, suggesting limited recent conviction changes among market participants.

Key factors:
- Sorokin's save percentage and goals-against average compared to other top candidates through the 2025-26 regular season
- Number of wins and games played by Sorokin versus competing goaltenders—durability is historically weighted in Vezina voting
- Late-season injury or performance decline for Sorokin or emergence of an alternative candidate with superior statistical case
- Playoff performance of Sorokin's team and whether he maintains elite metrics through June
- Historical voting patterns of the professional voters who determine the award, which sometimes diverge from raw statistics

Contracts:
- NHL Vezina Trophy Winner: Jeremy Swayman — 4¢ Polymarket $126 (weight 22%)
- NHL Vezina Trophy Winner: Ilya Sorokin — 3¢ Polymarket $436 (weight 78%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-07T19:20:13.790Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "4% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nhl-vezina-trophy-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=NHL%20Vezina%20Trophy%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev