22% — Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Central Division
Kalshi 22% · 4 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-24 03:19:52 UTC

Why this matters:
This 21% probability indicates that markets assess the Colorado Avalanche as an underdog to win the Central Division in the 2026-27 NHL season. The Avalanche face competition from stronger-favored teams, particularly the Minnesota Wild (23%) and Dallas Stars (17%), suggesting market participants view their roster composition or recent performance as less competitive than alternatives in the division. The probability could shift based on roster moves during the offseason, injury developments to key players, and early regular-season performance once games begin in October 2026. Major catalysts include the completion of training camps and preseason exhibitions, which typically provide indicators of team readiness and form heading into the regular season.

Key factors:
- Head-to-head roster strength comparison: Analyzing salary cap allocation, recent acquisitions, and player age/performance trends relative to division rivals
- Injury status of star players: Availability of Colorado's top-performing skaters and goaltender entering the 2026-27 season
- Playoff history and momentum: Division winners' past performance in comparable recent seasons and playoff success
- Trading deadline and offseason activity: Magnitude of roster changes made by Colorado versus division competitors
- Early season win-loss record: October and November performance relative to projections once regular season games commence

Contracts:
- Will the Utah Mammoth win the Central Division?: Utah Mammoth — 9¢ Kalshi $943 (weight 89%)
- Will the Minnesota Wild win the Central Division?: Minnesota Wild — 23¢ Kalshi $119 (weight 11%)
- Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Central Division?: Colorado Avalanche — 38¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Dallas Stars win the Central Division?: Dallas Stars — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-09-24T02:20:51.654Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "22% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nhlcentral
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Colorado%20Avalanche%20win%20the%20Central%20Division
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev