23% — Will Chase Reid be picked 3rd in the NHL Draft
Kalshi 23% · 16 contracts · $32K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:29 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates an 18% chance that Chase Reid will be selected 3rd overall in the NHL Draft. The probability reflects that Reid is considered a prospect in contention for an early first-round pick, but not the consensus third choice among NHL scouts and teams. The main factors supporting this probability are Reid's current standing in various pre-draft rankings and his performance metrics relative to other top prospects. The probability could shift based on changes in Reid's play, injuries to competing prospects, or new information from team scouts. The NHL Draft itself will resolve this contract, typically held in late June, which is when the actual draft order and selections occur. Until then, the market price reflects aggregated expectations about how teams will rank Reid among the available pool of elite prospects.

Key factors:
- Chase Reid's current ranking in major pre-draft consensus boards (NHL.com, aggregated scouts) relative to other top-3 candidates
- Reported interest from teams picking in the 3rd position, which can shift based on pro days, interviews, and private workouts
- Recent performance in league play or playoff tournaments that might impact his evaluation among scouts
- Injury status or any off-ice factors that could affect his draft position
- Competitor prospects' recent performances and trajectory changes that might alter the 3rd overall selection calculus

Contracts:
- Will Chase Reid be picked 2nd in the NHL Draft?: Chase Reid — 7¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 19%)
- Will Caleb Malhotra be picked 4th in the NHL Draft?: Caleb Malhotra — 33¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 17%)
- Will Chase Reid be picked 3rd in the NHL Draft?: Chase Reid — 42¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 13%)
- Will Chase Reid be picked 4th in the NHL Draft?: Chase Reid — 38¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 11%)
- Will Ivar Stenberg be picked 2nd in the NHL Draft?: Ivar Stenberg — 84¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 11%)
- Will Caleb Malhotra be picked 3rd in the NHL Draft?: Caleb Malhotra — 47¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 8%)
- Will Alberts Smits be picked 5th in the NHL Draft?: Alberts Smits — 30¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%)
- Will Carson Carels be picked 5th in the NHL Draft?: Carson Carels — 23¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 4%)
- ... and 8 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:49.585Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "23% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nhldraftpick
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Chase%20Reid%20be%20picked%203rd%20in%20the%20NHL%20Draft
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev