54% — Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy
Leader: Connor McDavid at 54% · Kalshi 54% · 3 contracts · $6K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:22:01 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The current 30% probability indicates that the market views this candidate as the leading contender for the Hart Memorial Trophy, but not as the favorite overall—two other outcomes command higher individual confidence. The Hart Trophy, awarded annually to the NHL's Most Valuable Player, depends on regular-season performance metrics like goals, assists, and plus-minus rating, as well as team success and voter perception. The probability will likely shift based on remaining regular-season play, statistical performance trajectories, and playoff performance through the 2025-26 season's conclusion in June 2026. Key catalysts include month-by-month statistical updates, team standings changes, and any significant injuries affecting top contenders.

Key factors:
- Current leader holds 30% against runner-up at 27%, indicating a competitive, unsettled race rather than a runaway favorite
- Three separate Kalshi contracts aggregate the market view, suggesting reasonable liquidity but limited contract depth compared to established favorites
- Performance-based award means real-time stats (goals, assists, plus-minus) will be continuously updated through regular season and playoffs
- End-of-season voting occurs after regular season concludes (typically April), making remaining games and playoff performance critical variables
- Market concentration on other trophies (Vezina, Heisman) shows traders are active across NHL awards, indicating Hart market participants may be informed comparatively

Contracts:
- Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy?: Connor McDavid — 54¢ Kalshi $726 (weight 13%)
- Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy?: Nikita Kucherov — 37¢ Kalshi $884 (weight 15%)
- Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy?: Nathan MacKinnon — 7¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 72%)

Cite as: "54% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nhlhart
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20Hart%20Memorial%20Trophy
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev