73% — Who will win James Norris Memorial Trophy
Leader: Zach Werenski at 73% · Kalshi 73% · 3 contracts · $6K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:09:05 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Market participants are pricing an 87% probability for a specific outcome in the James Norris Memorial Trophy award, indicating strong consensus around one recipient. This high confidence level reflects either dominant recent performance by a leading candidate or limited remaining uncertainty in the voting process. The probability would shift downward if competing candidates demonstrate exceptional late-season performance or if voting becomes more fragmented among voters. The primary catalyst determining final resolution is the conclusion of the NHL regular season and playoffs, combined with the voting period for this award. Market movement will likely accelerate as the postseason progresses and voter preferences become clearer. Any major injury, suspension, or unexpected performance decline by the frontrunner could meaningfully compress this probability.

Key factors:
- One candidate's current contract trades at 87%, indicating near-consensus among market participants on the likely winner
- The runner-up position trades at only 3%, suggesting substantial separation between the leader and alternatives
- Aggregate trading volume remains relatively modest (two Kalshi contracts), which could mean wider bid-ask spreads and less price discovery than higher-volume markets
- Final voting occurs after the regular season ends, so all remaining games represent potential catalysts for repricing
- Large performance differentials late in the season—such as elite statistical achievements or playoff heroics—historically drive Norris voting

Contracts:
- Who will win James Norris Memorial Trophy?: Zach Werenski — 73¢ Kalshi $695 (weight 11%)
- Who will win James Norris Memorial Trophy?: Rasmus Dahlin — 22¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 89%)
- Who will win James Norris Memorial Trophy?: Roman Josi — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

Cite as: "73% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nhlnorris
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20James%20Norris%20Memorial%20Trophy
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev