86% — Who will win Vezina Trophy
Leader: Andrei Vasilevskiy at 86% · Kalshi 86% · 7 contracts · $680 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:26 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 83% probability on Andrei Vasilevskiy reflects market expectations that he will win the Vezina Trophy, awarded annually to the NHL's best goaltender. This strong confidence reflects Vasilevskiy's track record as a two-time Vezina winner and his ongoing performance with the Tampa Bay Lightning. The primary factors supporting this level are his season statistics and historical accomplishment, while meaningful competition from goalies like Ilya Sorokin (priced at 6%) could push the probability lower if their teams perform exceptionally well down the stretch. The Vezina winner is determined by a vote among NHL broadcasters, coaches, and media following the regular season, typically announced in June. Changes in goaltender performance, team playoff positioning, and voting patterns from previous years will ultimately determine whether Vasilevskiy maintains this favorite status through award announcement.

Key factors:
- Vasilevskiy's historical voting patterns and prior Vezina wins provide a baseline expectation for voter familiarity and preference
- Regular-season save percentage and goals-against average for top candidates will be publicly available metrics voters use for comparison
- The gap between Vasilevskiy at 83% and Sorokin at 6% suggests market assigns meaningful probability to alternatives, indicating uncertainty remains resolvable
- Award voting occurs post-season in June 2026, creating a defined date when all statistical performance data becomes final
- Voter composition (broadcasters, coaches, media) may weight performance differently, affecting how close statistical performances translate to voting margins

Contracts:
- Who will win Vezina Trophy?: Andrei Vasilevskiy — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win Vezina Trophy?: Thatcher Demko — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win Vezina Trophy?: Jacob Markstrom — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win Vezina Trophy?: Ilya Sorokin — 5¢ Kalshi $94 (weight 14%)
- Who will win Vezina Trophy?: Juuse Saros — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win Vezina Trophy?: Jeremy Swayman — 3¢ Kalshi $586 (weight 86%)
- Who will win Vezina Trophy?: Joey Daccord — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

Cite as: "86% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nhlvezina
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20Vezina%20Trophy
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev