56% — Will Paige Beauchemin be the Democratic nominee for NH-02
Kalshi 56% · 5 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 03:47:28 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the current estimated chance that Paige Beauchemin will be selected as the Democratic nominee for New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District. The 37% assessment reflects significant competition within the Democratic primary field, with Maggie Goodlander priced at 92 cents on related contracts, indicating she is viewed as the frontrunner. Beauchemin's probability could shift based on fundraising totals, endorsements from state party figures, polling data as the election cycle progresses, and performance in any debates or public forums. The primary election date will ultimately resolve this market, providing definitive confirmation of the nominee. Until then, market movements will likely respond to campaign developments including candidate spending reports, media coverage, and any organizational momentum within New Hampshire Democratic circles.

Key factors:
- Maggie Goodlander is priced at 92 cents on the Democratic NH-02 nominee contract, suggesting she is the primary competitor and Beauchemin faces a crowded field
- Low trading volume on Beauchemin's contract ($25 24h vol) indicates limited market conviction and potential illiquidity that could affect price accuracy
- The 37% probability implies a three-way or multi-candidate race where no single candidate has dominant support
- Primary election timing and filing deadlines will serve as key decision points for candidate participation and viability
- Candidate fundraising reports and voter polling releases between now and the primary will provide concrete performance metrics to reassess probabilities

Contracts:
- Will Hollie Noveletsky be the Republican nominee for NH-01?: Hollie Noveletsky — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican nominee for NH-01?: Anthony DiLorenzo — 69¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Maggie Goodlander be the Democratic nominee for NH-02?: Maggie Goodlander — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Lily Tang Williams be the Republican nominee for NH-02?: Lily Tang Williams — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Victor Orlando be the Republican nominee for NH-02?: Victor Orlando — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T03:20:49.459Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "56% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nhprimary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Paige%20Beauchemin%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20NH-02
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev