96% — Will US new home sales for March 2026 be above 620,000 Leader: Above 520,000 at 96% · Kalshi 96% · 8 contracts · $730 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 13:12:56 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: The market is pricing a 94% probability that US new home sales in March 2026 exceeded 620,000 units, based on trading activity across eight related contracts. This reflects relatively strong confidence in housing starts remaining elevated, though the contract structure reveals meaningful uncertainty at higher thresholds—the probability drops to 83% for 620,000 units and 62% for 640,000 units. Housing sales data depends on mortgage rates, builder inventory levels, and consumer demand, which can shift significantly month-to-month. The Census Bureau releases March sales figures typically in late April or early May, providing the definitive resolution point. Traders appear to be pricing in resilience in the housing market, though the declining confidence at higher sales levels suggests expectations of moderation rather than acceleration from recent trends. Key factors: - Mortgage rates in early 2026 relative to the prior 12 months—higher rates would reduce affordability and pressure sales below the threshold - Builder inventory levels and new-home availability, which determine how many units can actually be sold - Consumer income growth and employment conditions in Q1 2026, which drive demand for new housing purchases - Seasonal patterns in March home sales compared to historical averages for that month - Actual Census Bureau release of March 2026 new home sales data, expected in late April or early May 2026 Contracts: - Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 520,000?: Above 520,000 — 96¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%) - Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 540,000?: Above 540,000 — 91¢ Kalshi $105 (weight 14%) - Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 560,000?: Above 560,000 — 83¢ Kalshi $446 (weight 61%) - Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 580,000?: Above 580,000 — 70¢ Kalshi $63 (weight 9%) - Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 600,000?: Above 600,000 — 57¢ Kalshi $43 (weight 6%) - Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 620,000?: Above 620,000 — 51¢ Kalshi $42 (weight 6%) - Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 640,000?: Above 640,000 — 38¢ Kalshi $16 (weight 2%) - Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 660,000?: Above 660,000 — 28¢ Kalshi $14 (weight 2%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T12:20:48.788Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nhsales Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20US%20new%20home%20sales%20for%20March%202026%20be%20above%20620%2C000 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev