76% — Will New Hampshire Governor winner be Democratic party and New Hampshire Senate winner be Democratic party
Leader: Kelly Ayotte and Chris Pappas win at 76% · Kalshi 76% · 4 contracts · $690 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-25 07:08:34 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability represents the market's assessment that New Hampshire will elect Democratic candidates for both its governor and U.S. Senate seat in 2026. Currently priced at 48%, a Democratic sweep is the second-most likely outcome, trailing the scenario where Republicans win the governorship while Democrats retain the Senate seat. The Democratic sweep outcome's relative weakness reflects uncertainty about the gubernatorial race, where Republican incumbency or candidate strength may pose challenges. Key catalysts include the official entry of candidates, primary elections that clarify each party's nominee quality, and major campaign events or shifts in state economic conditions through election day. Polling trends from recognized New Hampshire surveys will provide ongoing signals about which party is gaining momentum.

Key factors:
- New Hampshire's recent voting patterns show lean-Democratic federal preferences but swing-state dynamics in gubernatorial races, making both outcomes plausible
- Current Republican Senate incumbent's status and whether the seat appears competitive will heavily influence the joint probability
- Quality and name recognition of each party's gubernatorial nominee, once finalized, represents a major update point for this market
- Economic conditions and national political environment in mid-2026 will shape turnout and candidate viability heading into November
- Polling data from credible New Hampshire surveys showing head-to-head matchups will provide empirical signals that traders incorporate into prices

Contracts:
- Will New Hampshire Governor winner be Republican party and New Hampshire Senate winner be Democratic party?: Kelly Ayotte and Chris Pappas win — 76¢ Kalshi $47 (weight 7%)
- Will New Hampshire Governor winner be Republican party and New Hampshire Senate winner be Republican party?: Kelly Ayotte and John E. Sununu win — 12¢ Kalshi $643 (weight 93%)
- Will New Hampshire Governor winner be Democratic party and New Hampshire Senate winner be Republican party?: Cinde Warmington and John E. Sununu win — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will New Hampshire Governor winner be Democratic party and New Hampshire Senate winner be Democratic party?: Cinde Warmington and Chris Pappas win — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-25T06:20:49.036Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "76% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nhsengovcombo
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20New%20Hampshire%20Governor%20winner%20be%20Democratic%20party%20and%20New%20Hampshire%20Senate%20winner%20be%20Democratic%20party
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev