95% — NJ-07 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader: Rebecca Bennett at 95% · Polymarket 95% · 3 contracts · $811 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:00 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Contracts:
- NJ-07 Democratic Primary Winner: Rebecca Bennett — 95¢ Polymarket $811 (weight 100%)
- NJ-07 Democratic Primary Winner: Brian Varela — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- NJ-07 Democratic Primary Winner: Tina Shah — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-04T01:20:12.748Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nj07-democratic-primary-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=NJ-07%20Democratic%20Primary%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev