97% — How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Bedminster in Jun 2026
Kalshi 97% · 1 contracts · $119 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-07-09 22:45:05 UTC

Why this matters:
The market is pricing an approximately 68% probability that Donald Trump visits Trump National Golf Club Bedminster exactly once during June 2026. This forecast reflects expectations about his schedule and travel patterns during a specific month, with the remaining 32% of probability distributed across zero visits, two visits, three visits, or four visits. The high concentration on the single-visit outcome suggests traders believe one trip is most likely based on his typical seasonal usage patterns and known commitments. Key drivers include his presidential schedule and any publicly announced events at the property. The probability will resolve definitively only after June 30, 2026, when visit records become verifiable. Until then, changes in announced schedules or reported visits would shift trader expectations substantially.

Key factors:
- Trump's publicly announced schedule for June 2026, including confirmed appearances and events at or away from the property
- Historical visit frequency to Bedminster during June in prior years as a baseline for typical behavior
- Current weather and seasonal factors affecting golf course conditions and travel appeal during that specific month
- Any officially reported visits or property activity documented during the June 1-30 window, which would narrow remaining uncertainty
- Scheduling conflicts or competing commitments that would affect his availability to visit the property

Contracts:
- How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Bedminster in Jun 2026?: 1 — 97¢ Kalshi $119 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-30T13:20:52.017Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/njgolfvisitcount
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20times%20will%20Donald%20Trump%20visit%20Trump%20National%20Golf%20Club%20Bedminster%20in%20Jun%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev