93% — Will Sue Altman be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12
Kalshi 93% · 1 contracts · $400 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-15 20:58:04 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the likelihood that Sue Altman wins the Democratic primary for New Jersey's 12th congressional district. A 37% probability reflects moderate confidence but significant uncertainty about her candidacy's viability. The outcome will depend on primary field composition, her political profile and fundraising capacity relative to competitors, and local Democratic voting patterns. Key factors include whether she enters the race, total candidate competition, her performance in early polling or endorsements, and turnout dynamics in the district. The primary election date would be the decisive moment for resolution.

Key factors:
- Sue Altman's official announcement of candidacy or confirmation she is running for NJ-12
- Number and strength of competing Democratic candidates in the primary field
- Polling results showing support levels among likely Democratic primary voters in NJ-12
- Endorsements from county Democratic organizations or other established party figures
- Early fundraising totals and ability to build campaign infrastructure

Contracts:
- Will Rosie Pino be the Republican nominee for NJ-09?: Rosie Pino — 93¢ Kalshi $400 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-13T13:20:50.695Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/njprimary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Sue%20Altman%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20NJ-12
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev