7% — Will Andreu Mas-Colell win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel Kalshi 7% · 8 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-14 08:33:34 UTC Why this matters: This represents the market's estimate of the likelihood that Andreu Mas-Colell, a prominent Catalan economist, will win the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. At 9%, he ranks among several candidates with comparable probabilities, suggesting moderate recognition for his contributions but significant uncertainty about whether he will be selected. The economics prize typically goes to researchers whose work has shaped the field over decades—Mas-Colell's contributions to general equilibrium theory and microeconomic foundations are well-regarded, but the prize is notoriously difficult to predict. The Nobel Prize is announced in October each year, which is the primary event that will resolve this contract. Market probability levels like this reflect both Mas-Colell's established reputation and the inherent difficulty of forecasting a decision made by the Swedish Academy, where selection criteria and committee composition evolve. Key factors: - Mas-Colell's citation record and theoretical contributions to general equilibrium and microeconomic theory will determine his academic standing relative to competitors - The Swedish Academy's historical pattern of recognizing either foundational theoretical work or applied research in behavioral economics may favor or disadvantage different candidate profiles - Mas-Colell's age and career trajectory relative to other nominees affects typical selection patterns, as the prize often goes to scholars mid-to-late career - No living economist has a guaranteed claim to the prize; past winners from his research area and generation provide calibration for relative chances - The October 2026 announcement date is the definitive catalyst that will resolve all speculation about this year's recipient Contracts: - Will Robert Barro win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?: Robert Barro — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Partha Dasgupta win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?: Partha Dasgupta — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Richard Blundell win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?: Richard Blundell — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Susan Athey win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?: Susan Athey — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Ernst Fehr win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?: Ernst Fehr — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Matthew Rabin win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?: Matthew Rabin — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Andreu Mas-Colell win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?: Andreu Mas-Colell — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Ariel Pakes win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?: Ariel Pakes — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-14T08:20:49.979Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nobelecon Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Andreu%20Mas-Colell%20win%20the%20Sveriges%20Riksbank%20Prize%20in%20Economic%20Sciences%20in%20Memory%20of%20Alfred%20Nobel Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev