26% — North Carolina Courage vs. Kansas City Current Kalshi 26% · 8 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 19:06:51 UTC Why this matters: This 28% probability reflects market expectations for North Carolina Courage to defeat Kansas City Current in what appears to be a soccer match. The significant 24-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests disagreement about the teams' relative strength or match circumstances. The low contract volume on Polymarket raises questions about whether that venue's pricing reflects genuine liquidity or sparse trading. Resolution depends on team form, injury status, and head-to-head matchup dynamics. The contracts listed span college baseball, NFL championships, and NFL team speculation—indicating potential category confusion across venues that may explain the divergent pricing rather than substantive disagreement about the specific match outcome. Key factors: - Polymarket's 7% price derives from only one contract with limited trading volume, suggesting it may not represent informed consensus on this specific matchup - Kalshi's higher concentration of contracts and volume ($24K+ 24h vol) provides a larger sample of trader opinion but still shows meaningful uncertainty given the median around 31% - Contract titles reference college baseball, NFL championships, and player transfers rather than professional women's soccer, indicating possible labeling errors or venue confusion affecting price reliability - North Carolina Courage and Kansas City Current compete in the NWSL; match outcome depends on current seasonal standings, recent form, injury reports, and scheduled fixture date which are not specified in available contract data - The 24-percentage-point cross-venue gap is larger than typical arbitrage opportunities, suggesting either liquidity constraints on one venue or substantive disagreement about the underlying event definition Contracts: - Will Kansas City win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Kansas City — 6¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 53%) - Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine?: Yes — 49¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 42%) - What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Kansas City — 17¢ Kalshi $133 (weight 3%) - Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: Kansas City — 13¢ Kalshi $74 (weight 2%) - Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Patrick Mahomes be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1?: Patrick Mahomes — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts — 35¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Justin Fields be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1?: Justin Fields — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T18:20:49.226Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "26% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/north-carolina-courage-vs-kansas-city-current Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=North%20Carolina%20Courage%20vs.%20Kansas%20City%20Current Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev