28% — North Carolina Courage vs. Kansas City Current - More Markets: O/U 4.5
Kalshi 28% · 8 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 03:15:15 UTC

Why this matters:
This market is pricing the probability that an NWSL match between North Carolina Courage and Kansas City Current ends with more than 4.5 total goals scored. The 27% aggregate probability reflects a significant gap between Kalshi (30%) and Polymarket (6%), suggesting disagreement about whether these teams' offensive and defensive patterns typically produce high-scoring contests. The pricing would move higher if either team shows stronger attacking form or defensive vulnerabilities in recent matches, and lower if defensive solidity or goalkeeper performance becomes the dominant pattern. The match result will resolve this uncertainty when the game is played, providing definitive data on total goals scored.

Key factors:
- Recent goal-scoring rates for both teams in league play, including shots on target and conversion efficiency
- Head-to-head historical scoring patterns between these specific opponents in NWSL matchups
- Current defensive metrics and goals-against averages for Kansas City and North Carolina
- Injury or personnel status of key attacking and defensive players on both rosters
- Weather conditions and venue factors on match day that typically affect scoring pace in women's soccer

Contracts:
- Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine?: Yes — 49¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 43%)
- Will Kansas City win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Kansas City — 6¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 38%)
- What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Kansas City — 31¢ Kalshi $646 (weight 15%)
- Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: Kansas City — 13¢ Kalshi $146 (weight 3%)
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts — 39¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Patrick Mahomes be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1?: Patrick Mahomes — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Justin Fields be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1?: Justin Fields — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T02:20:51.191Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "28% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/north-carolina-courage-vs-kansas-city-current-more-markets
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=North%20Carolina%20Courage%20vs.%20Kansas%20City%20Current%20-%20More%20Markets%3A%20O%2FU%204.5
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev