84% — North Carolina Senate Election Winner
Leader: Roy Cooper (D) at 84% · Polymarket 84% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-28 23:29:34 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 86% probability reflects market expectation that a specific candidate will win North Carolina's Senate seat, with the remaining 14% assigned to the alternative outcome. Current market pricing is heavily influenced by polling data and historical voting patterns in the state, which has trended Republican in recent cycles. The probability could shift materially based on campaign developments, economic conditions closer to Election Day, or changes in voter registration patterns. The North Carolina Senate election is scheduled for November 2026, providing several months for new information to emerge that could adjust these odds. Key determinants include candidate quality, national political environment, and turnout dynamics in competitive regions of the state.

Key factors:
- Recent North Carolina statewide elections show Republican strength, but Senate races can diverge from presidential patterns due to candidate-specific factors
- Polymarket contracts show significant volume concentration ($17,426 in 24h volume for comparable race), indicating active price discovery but relatively modest total liquidity
- Kalshi margin-of-victory contracts price Republican victory at 1+ points (11¢) and Democratic 9+ point victory at 51¢, suggesting asymmetric outcome expectations
- The November 2026 election date is approximately six months away, leaving substantial time for polling shifts, candidate emergence or withdrawal, or demographic changes to materially alter probabilities
- Volume and pricing differences across platforms may reflect different market participants and information sets, worth monitoring for consensus shifts

Contracts:
- North Carolina Senate Election Winner: Roy Cooper (D) — 84¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 50%)
- North Carolina Senate Election Winner: Michael Whatley (R) — 16¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 50%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "84% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/north-carolina-senate-election-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=North%20Carolina%20Senate%20Election%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev