35% — North East United FC vs. FC Goa
Leader: Democrats, 9+ pts at 35% · Kalshi 35% · 5 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 19:09:50 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The market implies a 41% probability that Democrats will win North Carolina's U.S. Senate election by at least 9 percentage points. The graduated contract structure shows significant uncertainty: traders price a 13+ point Democratic win at just 28%, suggesting the most likely scenarios involve either a closer Democratic victory, a Republican win, or substantial movement before election day. Historical performance in swing-state Senate races, current polling aggregates, and candidate-specific approval ratings are driving the current assessment. The outcome will be determined by the November 2026 general election, with the final months likely bringing shifts as the campaign intensifies and late-breaking events unfold. Liquidity remains limited across these contracts, which may affect price stability.

Key factors:
- The 41% probability for a 9+ point Democratic margin reflects elevated uncertainty compared to a binary win/loss outcome, indicating meaningful probability mass across multiple margin scenarios
- Kalshi's 24% average across five contracts suggests traders assign only 28% probability to Democrats exceeding a 13-point margin, the most decisive outcome
- North Carolina's partisan lean and historical Senate race margins provide a baseline reference; 2024 state-level performance data will influence expectations for 2026
- Polling aggregates in the 18 months before November 2026 will be the primary driver of probability adjustments, with particular weight on direct Senate matchup surveys
- Limited 24-hour trading volume ($8 maximum on any single contract) indicates low current engagement, making the probabilities vulnerable to shifts as the election approaches

Contracts:
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts — 35¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 11 percentage points?: Democrats, 11+ pts — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 13 percentage points?: Democrats, 13+ pts — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 3 percentage points?: Republicans, 3+ pts — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T18:20:50.483Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "35% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/north-east-united-fc-vs-fc-goa
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=North%20East%20United%20FC%20vs.%20FC%20Goa
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev