35% — Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test?
Kalshi 35% · 12 contracts · $10K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 02:55:41 UTC

Contracts:
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 17¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 41%)
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Sep 1, 2026 — 3¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 22%)
- Will Cincinnati win the Pro Football AFC North Division?: Cincinnati — 32¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 17%)
- Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina?: Michael Whatley — 10¢ Kalshi $856 (weight 9%)
- Will Minnesota win the Pro Football NFC North Division?: Minnesota — 17¢ Kalshi $735 (weight 7%)
- Will Chicago win the Pro Football NFC North Division?: Chicago — 22¢ Kalshi $145 (weight 1%)
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 20, 2029 — 54¢ Kalshi $98 (weight 1%)
- Will Baltimore win the Pro Football AFC North Division?: Baltimore — 45¢ Kalshi $67 (weight 1%)
- ... and 4 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T02:20:51.724Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "35% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/north-korea-nuclear
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20North%20Korea%20conduct%20a%20nuclear%20test%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev