38% — Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test?
Kalshi 38% · 14 contracts · $94K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:02 UTC

Contracts:
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before July — 9¢ Kalshi $86K (weight 91%)
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before 2027 — 48¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 3%)
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before September — 25¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 3%)
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?: Before August — 18¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 2%)
- Will Minnesota win the Pro Football NFC North Division?: Minnesota — 16¢ Kalshi $535 (weight 1%)
- Will US test scores in Reading decline?: Significant decrease — 55¢ Kalshi $304 (weight 0%)
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before 2028 — 67¢ Kalshi $217 (weight 0%)
- Will US test scores in Reading decline?: No significant difference — 30¢ Kalshi $109 (weight 0%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:09.429Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "38% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/north-korea-nuclear
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20North%20Korea%20conduct%20a%20nuclear%20test%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev