43% — Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.29 on Jun 30, 2026
Leader: 4.25% or above at 43% · Kalshi 43% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 13:12:57 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.24 on Jun 30, 2026?: 4.25% or above — 43¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.29 on Jun 30, 2026?: 4.3% or above — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.34 on Jun 30, 2026?: 4.35% or above — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-10T13:20:11.613Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "43% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/note10m
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20yield%20of%2010-year%20U.S.%20treasury%20notes%20be%20above%204.29%20on%20Jun%2030%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev