28% — Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.14 on Dec 31, 2026
Leader: 4.75% or above at 28% · Kalshi 28% · 4 contracts · $3 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 16:17:35 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market is pricing a 26% probability that 10-year U.S. Treasury yields will exceed 5.14% by December 31, 2026. The prediction reflects expectations about Federal Reserve policy, inflation trajectory, and economic growth over the next six months. Markets currently favor yields staying below this level, with traders assigning higher probabilities to outcomes between 4.74% and 5.09%. The key driver is whether the Fed maintains its current monetary stance or shifts course based on inflation and labor-market data. Major economic data releases—particularly inflation reports, employment figures, and Fed statements—will be the primary catalysts that could shift probability. The outcome ultimately depends on whether Treasury yields rise sharply from current levels, requiring either significant economic deterioration or an inflation resurgence to justify rates at this elevated threshold.

Key factors:
- Current 10-year yield levels as of June 2026 and the recent trend trajectory determine the distance needed to reach 5.14%
- Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions and forward guidance between June and December 2026 directly influence long-term yields
- Inflation data releases over the second half of 2026, particularly CPI and PCE reports, will impact expectations for real yields
- Employment and economic growth indicators will signal whether the Fed maintains accommodation or considers rate adjustments
- The pricing pattern across the four contracts (27¢ at 4.99%, 6¢ at 5.14%) shows market conviction that yields are unlikely to reach the highest threshold

Contracts:
- Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.74 on Dec 31, 2026?: 4.75% or above — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.99 on Dec 31, 2026?: 5% or above — 17¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 100%)
- Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.09 on Dec 31, 2026?: 5.1% or above — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.14 on Dec 31, 2026?: 5.15% or above — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T15:20:49.908Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "28% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/note10y
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20yield%20of%2010-year%20U.S.%20treasury%20notes%20be%20above%205.14%20on%20Dec%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev