17% — Will Fukuoka Hawks win the Japan NPB
Kalshi 17% · 7 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-27 07:55:26 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that the Fukuoka Hawks will win Japan's NPB championship this season. At 3 cents (implying roughly a 3% contract price), the Hawks are priced among the lowest favorites, suggesting traders view them as significant underdogs compared to teams like the Saitama Seibu Lions (20 cents). The Hawks' probability depends on their current regular-season performance, roster health, and ability to execute in playoff competition. The season typically concludes in October with championship resolution, providing a clear resolution date. Market pricing may shift based on mid-season standings, trade deadline activity, and injury reports affecting key players. The low trading volume ($0 in recent 24 hours) indicates minimal market interest in this specific outcome currently.

Key factors:
- Fukuoka Hawks' current wins-loss record and standing in the Pacific League as of mid-June 2026
- Comparative strength of roster construction and star player availability relative to Saitama Lions (20¢ implied favorite) and other contenders
- Historical playoff performance of the Hawks organization in recent seasons and their ability to sustain performance through October
- Mid-season trade deadline acquisitions or injuries to key players that would materially affect championship odds
- NPB playoff format structure and the Hawks' seeding trajectory that would determine their path to the championship

Contracts:
- Will Fukuoka Hawks win the Japan NPB?: Fukuoka Hawks — 29¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 85%)
- Will Hanshin Tigers win the Japan NPB?: Hanshin Tigers — 10¢ Kalshi $101 (weight 8%)
- Will Yomiuri Giants win the Japan NPB?: Yomiuri Giants — 15¢ Kalshi $80 (weight 6%)
- Will Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters win the Japan NPB?: Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters — 19¢ Kalshi $23 (weight 2%)
- Will Orix Buffaloes win the Japan NPB?: Orix Buffaloes — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Saitama Seibu Lions win the Japan NPB?: Saitama Seibu Lions — 35¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles win the Japan NPB?: Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-27T07:20:51.194Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "17% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/npb
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Fukuoka%20Hawks%20win%20the%20Japan%20NPB
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev