72% — Will Natera, Inc. report Above 4.25 million tests processed in fiscal 2026
Leader: Above 4.2 million at 72% · Kalshi 72% · 4 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-27 11:50:05 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract reflects market expectations that Natera will process at least 4.25 million tests during fiscal year 2026. At 46%, traders assess this outcome as less likely than the 4.2 million threshold but still plausible. The probability reflects uncertainty around Natera's test volume growth trajectory, which depends on adoption rates across their product lines—including prenatal, cancer, and transplant testing—and their ability to expand laboratory capacity and customer relationships. Key catalysts include quarterly earnings reports throughout 2026 and management guidance on annual test volumes. The pricing gradient across thresholds (71% for 4.2M, 46% for 4.25M, 21% for 4.3M) suggests markets see modest growth from current run rates as the base case, with higher volumes viewed as requiring stronger-than-expected execution or market conditions. Resolution will occur when Natera reports full fiscal 2026 results, typically in early 2027.

Key factors:
- Natera's reported test volumes in fiscal 2025 and Q1-Q2 2026 results, which establish the baseline for assessing trajectory toward 4.25 million
- Quarterly earnings guidance and management commentary on test volume trends across prenatal, oncology, and organ transplant segments
- Competitive dynamics and market share shifts in genetic testing, particularly in prenatal screening where Natera faces established competitors
- Laboratory capacity constraints or expansions announced by Natera that would affect processing volume ceiling
- Healthcare reimbursement changes or policy shifts affecting test demand or Natera's addressable market during 2026

Contracts:
- Will Natera, Inc. report Above 4.2 million tests processed in fiscal 2026?: Above 4.2 million — 72¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Will Natera, Inc. report Above 4.25 million tests processed in fiscal 2026?: Above 4.25 million — 47¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Will Natera, Inc. report Above 4.3 million tests processed in fiscal 2026?: Above 4.3 million — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Will Natera, Inc. report Above 4.35 million tests processed in fiscal 2026?: Above 4.35 million — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-27T11:21:44.841Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "72% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ntraa
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev