31% — Will NVIDIA still be the largest company?
Kalshi 31% · 2 contracts · $767 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-09-22 16:17:16 UTC

Contracts:
- Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine?: Yes — 58¢ Kalshi $636 (weight 83%)
- Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 3¢ Kalshi $131 (weight 17%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-22T15:20:52.117Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nvidia-largest-company
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20NVIDIA%20still%20be%20the%20largest%20company%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev