37% — Will NVIDIA still be the largest company?
Kalshi 16% · Polymarket 80% · 6 contracts · $47K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:42:27 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 64pp (Polymarket higher)

Contracts:
- Largest Company end of June?: NVIDIA — 91¢ Polymarket $45K (weight 95%)
- Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA — 68¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 5%)
- Will Iran's score in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index be at least 6 in the 2026 edition?: Yes — 6¢ Kalshi $25 (weight 0%)
- Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine?: Yes — 46¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T04:20:11.327Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "37% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nvidia-largest-company
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20NVIDIA%20still%20be%20the%20largest%20company%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev