94% — Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 49 million
Leader: Above 47 million at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 8 contracts · $18K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 15:13:05 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The market assigns 94% probability that Nevada will exceed 48 million visitors in 2026, with 86% confidence it surpasses 49 million. This reflects expectations about tourism recovery and growth in the state's primary economic driver. The current probability level suggests consensus that visitor volumes will remain robust, though there is meaningful uncertainty about whether the state reaches the higher thresholds (59% for 50 million, 34% for 51 million). Key factors shaping these estimates include Las Vegas convention attendance trends, national travel spending patterns, and any disruptions to gaming or hospitality sectors. Nevada tourism data for 2026 will be officially released in early 2027, at which point the actual visitor count will resolve the uncertainty. Current low trading volume indicates limited recent market activity on these contracts.

Key factors:
- Las Vegas gaming revenue and hotel occupancy rates through 2026 will indicate whether convention and leisure travel meet historical baseline expectations
- National discretionary spending and airfare costs in 2026 will affect whether out-of-state visitors travel to Nevada at sufficient volume
- Any significant disruption to major Las Vegas properties, conventions, or events would reduce the likelihood of achieving target visitor volumes
- The gap between 48M and 49M visitors represents approximately 1% variance, yet the market prices them 8 percentage points apart, suggesting traders view the 49M threshold as a material step upward
- Official Nevada Tourism Commission visitor count release (expected Q1 2027) will provide definitive resolution based on documented visitation metrics

Contracts:
- Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 47 million?: Above 47 million — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 48 million?: Above 48 million — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 49 million?: Above 49 million — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 50 million?: Above 50 million — 51¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 18%)
- Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 51 million?: Above 51 million — 18¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 12%)
- Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 52 million?: Above 52 million — 5¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 33%)
- Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 53 million?: Above 53 million — 5¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 20%)
- Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 54 million?: Above 54 million — 4¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 17%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T13:20:50.044Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nvvisit
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Nevada%E2%80%99s%20statewide%20visitor%20volume%20for%202026%20be%20above%2049%20million
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev