13% — Will San Diego Wave FC win the NWSL Championship Game Kalshi 13% · 9 contracts · $139 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-27 07:06:42 UTC Why this matters: The 5% probability reflects market expectations that San Diego Wave FC has a one-in-twenty chance of winning the NWSL Championship Game. This assessment is lower than several competitors, particularly Washington Spirit at 10%, suggesting traders view the Wave as less likely contenders this season. The probability is driven by factors including team roster composition, mid-season performance metrics, and injury status relative to other NWSL clubs. The championship will be resolved on November 9, 2026, when the final match concludes the season. Until then, the probability may shift based on regular-season results, playoff positioning, and head-to-head performance against other title contenders through the rest of 2026. Key factors: - San Diego Wave FC's regular-season win-loss record and points accumulation relative to competitors through the 2026 season - Comparative odds across other teams show Washington Spirit at 10% and Kansas City Current at 4%, indicating market differentiation based on recent performance or roster strength - The team's injury status and roster availability leading into the playoff period in late 2026 - Historical NWSL Championship performance patterns and how San Diego's recent tournament results compare to other clubs - Playoff bracket positioning and path to the final, which depends entirely on regular-season standings determined by match outcomes through November 2026 Contracts: - Will Portland Thorns win the NWSL Championship Game?: Portland Thorns — 14¢ Kalshi $125 (weight 90%) - Will Washington Spirit win the NWSL Championship Game?: Washington Spirit — 23¢ Kalshi $14 (weight 10%) - Will Utah Royals FC win the NWSL Championship Game?: Utah Royals FC — 10¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 1%) - Will San Diego Wave FC win the NWSL Championship Game?: San Diego Wave FC — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Gotham FC win the NWSL Championship Game?: Gotham FC — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Kansas City Current win the NWSL Championship Game?: Kansas City Current — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Seattle Reign win the NWSL Championship Game?: Seattle Reign — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Angel City FC win the NWSL Championship Game?: Angel City FC — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-27T06:20:50.325Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nwsl Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20San%20Diego%20Wave%20FC%20win%20the%20NWSL%20Championship%20Game Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev