82% — NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader: Brad Lander at 82% · Polymarket 82% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:08:50 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
NY-10 is assigned an 83% probability that a particular Democratic candidate will win the primary election for New York's 10th Congressional District. This probability is aggregated from a limited volume of trading activity on Polymarket, where contracts have traded at an average of 51 cents. The relatively high probability suggests markets view one candidate as a strong frontrunner, likely based on incumbency status, fundraising advantage, or polling data. The primary outcome will depend on voter turnout, endorsement patterns, and campaign spending in the coming weeks. The resolution date tied to New York's primary election calendar would be the key event determining the winner.

Key factors:
- Market volume for NY-10 Democratic Primary contracts remains low at approximately $816 over 24 hours, limiting the confidence that can be placed in price accuracy
- The 83% probability exceeds the 51% average price from the underlying Polymarket contracts, indicating the aggregation method may be weighting external data sources or applying adjustments beyond market pricing
- New York primary election dates and candidate filing deadlines are fixed calendar events that could clarify field composition and candidate viability
- Comparable Democratic primary markets in the aggregated data show wide probability ranges (16%-80%), suggesting primary outcomes have substantial uncertainty across similar races
- Incumbent status, cash-on-hand, and prior electoral performance in the district would be factual metrics available for comparative analysis of candidate strength

Contracts:
- NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner: Brad Lander — 82¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 50%)
- NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner: Dan Goldman — 19¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 50%)

Cite as: "82% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ny10-democratic-primary-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=NY-10%20Democratic%20Primary%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev